Fertilizer has become the reason for the rise of grain prices. What should we do to get rid of the fertilizer dilemma?

In 2022, most countries in the world will experience the inflationary pressure brought by the rising food prices and food prices. Although it has declined a lot, it is still much higher than the same period last year, and this is not the end. According to the data predicted by the United Nations, global food prices may rise by more than 8.5% by 2027. A large part of this is due to the rising price of fertilizer. So, how does the price of fertilizer affect the price of grain? Can we get rid of the fertilizer dilemma?

Without fertilizer, we can only feed about half of the global population, so fertilizer is indeed essential. But at the same time, making enough fertilizer will bring huge damage to the environment. With the continuous growth of the population, the demand for fertilizer is also increasing, which is why the world is facing the fertilizer crisis. As a result, it becomes more and more expensive.

Generally, farmers will spend about 18% of their budget on seeds, fertilizers and pesticides. If the income from grain crops ultimately sold by farmers cannot cover the input, the damage is difficult to measure. For example, at present, the international fertilizer price has dropped again and again, which is not a real surplus of fertilizer, but a continuous decline in international food prices, exceeding the income expectations of farmers, so they prefer not to buy fertilizer.

This has a huge impact on the planting structure. We all know that crops need fertilizers to obtain nutrients needed for growth, especially nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium. However, some crops need less nutrients than others, such as legumes, which have nitrogen fixation effects. The high price of fertilizer will lead farmers to choose crops that require less fertilizer.

In the spring of 2022, when the US Department of Agriculture was investigating what farmers were planting, farmers responded that due to the high price of fertilizer, they planned to reduce corn and increase soybean planting. While causing imbalance between food supply and demand, the rise in fertilizer prices also means that corn is more expensive. Corn is a staple food and an important feed in some countries, which will be transmitted to meat prices. Although there is no exact proportion of the impact of fertilizer prices on food prices, it is definitely not small. Therefore, if farmers grow agricultural products that do not use or use less chemical fertilizers, what do people want to eat?

The Haber Bosch process is used to produce nitrogen fertilizer, which requires absorbing nitrogen and combining it with hydrogen in the chemical process of a large amount of heat and energy. The heat and energy mainly come from natural gas. Therefore, the cost of natural gas generally accounts for about 70% of the production cost of fertilizer.

The Haber process was invented by German scientists in the early 1900s, but it was only after World War II that it was widely used to produce fertilizer. With the use of chemical fertilizer, the output of wheat, corn, beans, potatoes, tomatoes and other major food crops in the world has been significantly increased.

However, with the development of chemical fertilizer industry, in the past decades, chemical fertilizer has gradually evolved into a product with highly concentrated resources, both globally and within a country. For example, many countries in the world, including China, are highly dependent on the supply of potash fertilizer from Russia and Belarus, which together provide about 30% of the world's potash fertilizer exports. For example, in countries like Brazil, 85% of the fertilizer comes from Russia and Belarus. Russia not only exports potassium fertilizer, but also together with Ukraine provides about 28% of the world's exports of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizer.

After the Russian Ukrainian crisis, the world's dependence on Russia and Ukraine's food and fertilizer was surprising, which disrupted transportation and led to soaring fertilizer and food prices. In order to cope with the expected shortage in the future, more and more fertilizers are shipped to the United States, Brazil, etc., but with the gradual decline of global food prices, farmers do not buy them, which leads to the false surplus of fertilizers we see today. By the spring of 2023, can farmers really get the fertilizer they need?

Excessive use of chemical fertilizer will lead to nutrient pollution, which is a common problem in any intensive planting country, and is also one of the most costly and challenging environmental problems. For example, excessive use of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers will lead to runoff reaching streams and oceans, leading to the proliferation of algae, which will also pollute drinking water and cause human and animal diseases. Then the soil itself is becoming more and more saline, so scientists are advocating better soil management to reduce the demand for chemical fertilizers.

The method of increasing yield by using chemical fertilizer is indeed effective for a period of time, but it destroys the sustainable use of soil. It doesn't mean that fertilizer is bad, but it needs to be used rationally, and the soil naturally contains nutrients. If your soil is in continuous depletion, you need to find a way to change it.

These practices may hit farmers' income in the short term, but in the long run, there is no doubt that they will have a far-reaching impact, because they will maintain the sustainable use of soil. Therefore, in the short term, it will cost money to make changes, which will require compensation to farmers, rather than being paid by farmers.

According to the estimate of the United Nations, in 2019, the global use of chemical fertilizers will produce about 1 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent greenhouse gases, which is equivalent to about 2% of the total global annual carbon dioxide emissions in the same year. At present, some enterprises are making efforts to make fossil fuel intensive processes more sustainable. For example, after releasing carbon in traditional processes, carbon capture is used to remove carbon from the air, or renewable energy such as wind and solar energy is used to provide power for fertilizer production.

Some companies are also trying to design a microorganism that can fix nitrogen, and directly bring nitrogen into cereal crops from the air without using chemical fertilizers. This will reduce the use of nitrogen fertilizer in wheat, corn, rice and other food crops, like beans, by about half. If successful, it will completely change the rules of the fertilizer industry.

In addition, the state should also provide more subsidies to encourage farmers to plant cover crops to increase soil carbon, use intercropping and all practices we know, such as no tillage, because this will bring us healthy soil and food.

Before the end of the Russian Ukrainian crisis, the price of fertilizer and food may continue to be expensive, but there is really no way not to use fertilizer. We should also use fertilizer more effectively, including at the right time and place, while making changes.